《A Week in Focus》Key financial and economic events to watch in the coming week:

*US and Russia Swiftly Reach Energy Deal*

　　US President Trump dropped a bombshell ahead of the midterm elections. To curb inflation, he swiftly reached a major energy agreement with Russian President Putin last Friday (9th), under which Russia will immediately supply large quantities of diesel to the US and global markets. As the most important supporter of Ukraine, Trump's deal with Putin was bound to face strong resistance. Thus, he previously hinted on social media that the in-depth call was about "discussing a suspected plague outbreak in Russia," thereby deceiving the US Congress and European allies. Meanwhile, Trump's envoy Witkoff and son-in-law Kushner were holding closed-door talks in Miami with high-level delegations from Ukraine and Europe, which explains why Zelenskyy angrily accused the US of using the Ukrainian delegation as a smokescreen to cover up the deal.

　　Putin told Trump during the call that Russia's objectives in its special military operation in Ukraine remain unchanged. The US's move to ease energy sanctions first gives Russia greater confidence to sustain a prolonged war. Some European countries, also suffering from high energy costs, may follow the US's lead, privately or openly seeking to resume economic ties with Russia.

*China Agrees to Limit Hybrid Vehicle Exports to Europe*

　　China's low-cost new-energy vehicles have recently shaken Europe, severely threatening the local auto market. After prolonged trade negotiations, the EU and China have finally reached an agreement on hybrid vehicle exports. China will limit the number of vehicles exported to the EU to avoid punitive tariffs. The EU expects Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to drop by more than half. After the EU imposed high anti-subsidy tariffs on fully electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles had become a strategic workaround for Chinese automakers to bypass restrictions. Automakers had hoped to export to Europe to absorb excess capacity, but now this pressure will flow back into the domestic market, potentially triggering a new round of price wars locally. However, China's concession is still better than a full-blown trade war. This four-year agreement gives Chinese automakers valuable breathing room. Companies like BYD (01211) and Chery (09973) are building factories in Europe. Once local production ramps up, Chinese brands will be able to manufacture and sell directly within the EU, bypassing all tariffs and quota restrictions.

*US Inflation Continues to Rise, But Core Component Slightly Eases*

　　The US will release September CPI data on Wednesday (14th). The market expects the year-on-year increase in overall CPI for September to rise from 3.4% in August to around 3.6%. Mainstream institutions such as Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Natixis predict that the month-on-month increase in September's overall CPI will fall between 0.58% and 0.62%, reflecting the recent rise in gasoline and energy costs, which is creating significant short-term upward pressure on overall inflation. In contrast, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to remain relatively stable. Most institutions anticipate the month-on-month increase in core CPI for September will narrow to around 0.2%. If this forecast proves accurate, the US's full-year core inflation rate will stabilize around 2.4%. Analysts note that falling prices in core services such as wireless communications help prevent inflationary pressures from spreading further.

*China's Financing Data Expected to Improve Significantly*

　　China is about to release September's social financing scale and new loan data. These figures are expected to break free from August's seasonal slump and show a substantial month-on-month increase, primarily driven by a significant acceleration in government bond issuance. It is predicted that the net issuance of national and local bonds in September will reach approximately RMB 1.57 to 1.59 trillion, a new high for the year. Additionally, new policy-based financial instruments launched in September have boosted medium- and long-term corporate loans.

　　On the price front, September's year-on-year CPI increase is expected to moderately rebound to around 0.9%, still at a low level. The main driver is seasonal food price increases, particularly improved pork consumption and a low base effect from the same period last year. However, as weather-related disruptions fade, the rise in vegetable and fresh fruit prices has already slowed. Overall, mild price performance suggests inflation will not constrain monetary policy, leaving room for future consumption-stimulating and structural monetary measures.

*Ganfeng's Q3 Earnings Look Promising, Transsion IPO Faces Cost Risks*

　　Ganfeng Lithium (01772) is about to release its first three quarters' earnings. Benefiting from strong downstream demand in new-energy vehicles and energy storage, coupled with a global lithium supply shortage that drove average material prices significantly higher year-on-year, the market expects the company's first three quarters' performance to see explosive growth, with third-quarter revenue reaching approximately RMB 16.282 billion. Additionally, Nanchang Ganfeng's 588Ah energy storage large cell production line successfully ramped up capacity in Q3, further optimizing cost and product structure. As a result, major brokerages such as Goldman Sachs have raised their full-year profit forecasts by as much as 33%, setting an optimistic tone for the first three quarters' results.

　　"Africa's Phone King" Transsion Holdings (02636) is conducting its Hong Kong IPO from October 7 to 12, with a listing expected this Thursday (15th). The offering price ranges from HK$35.3 to HK$38.8 per share, with a minimum investment of about HK$3,919. At the upper pricing limit, the H-shares are discounted by nearly 38% compared to the pre-National Day closing price of A-shares, theoretically offering a substantial discount. Transsion has attracted well-known cornerstone investors including Singapore's GIC, BYD, and MediaTek, who collectively subscribed for RMB 1.246 billion. On its first public subscription day, the stock received about HK$549 million in margin financing, representing an oversubscription of 0.6 times. Although Transsion, as a leading emerging-market phone maker, has strong IPO appeal, rising memory chip prices in recent years will inevitably eat into its profits. Transsion primarily focuses on emerging markets such as Africa and South Asia, where consumers are extremely price-sensitive, making it difficult for the company to fully pass on upstream cost increases to end users.
 　　*The above table summarizes board meeting dates announced by listed issuers. This list may not include all similar events and is for reference only. Please always monitor announcements from listed issuers.