ETN News Agency reported on the 12th that with only three weeks remaining until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, the Republican Party's electoral outlook is not optimistic. Goldman Sachs' "U.S. Election Monitor" report indicates that the probability of the Democratic Party winning both the Senate and the House of Representatives has risen to 65%, up from 52% a month ago. Strategists from BofA Merrill warn that if the Democrats successfully win both chambers, it could trigger a significant risk-off scenario, with U.S. stocks potentially falling over 10%, the dollar weakening, and bond yields declining.
The probability of the Republican Party retaining its majority in the House of Representatives has dropped below 10%. For the Senate, prediction markets reflect a probability of 65%.
In their report, Goldman Sachs analysts Alec Phillips and Abhay Duggirala pointed out that Democratic Party support shows a clear correlation with U.S. retail gasoline prices. As gasoline prices rise, the Democratic Party's lead also widens.
Report data shows that U.S. gasoline prices increased from around $3 per gallon at the beginning of 2026 to nearly $5 in spring, dropped back to about $4 during summer, and have recently risen again. During the same period, the Democratic Party's lead in the popular vote expanded from approximately 5 percentage points to nearly 9 percentage points.
The report also notes that inflation and the economy are the two major issues voters are most concerned about. U.S. President Trump's net approval ratings on both issues are negative, with a net approval of about -48 on inflation and about -33 on the economy, reflecting widespread disapproval of his policies among surveyed voters. (yc)
The probability of the Republican Party retaining its majority in the House of Representatives has dropped below 10%. For the Senate, prediction markets reflect a probability of 65%.
In their report, Goldman Sachs analysts Alec Phillips and Abhay Duggirala pointed out that Democratic Party support shows a clear correlation with U.S. retail gasoline prices. As gasoline prices rise, the Democratic Party's lead also widens.
Report data shows that U.S. gasoline prices increased from around $3 per gallon at the beginning of 2026 to nearly $5 in spring, dropped back to about $4 during summer, and have recently risen again. During the same period, the Democratic Party's lead in the popular vote expanded from approximately 5 percentage points to nearly 9 percentage points.
The report also notes that inflation and the economy are the two major issues voters are most concerned about. U.S. President Trump's net approval ratings on both issues are negative, with a net approval of about -48 on inflation and about -33 on the economy, reflecting widespread disapproval of his policies among surveyed voters. (yc)